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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jun 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 28/0935Z from Region 2836 (S28E21). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 27/2340Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/0105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/2231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 343 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jun 089
  Predicted   29 Jun-01 Jul 090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        28 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jun  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul  005/005-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%25%30%

All times in UTC

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