Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 June 2021

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jun 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 27/0028Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 302 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Jun, 29 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Jun).

III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun

Class M	05%	05%	05%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       27 Jun 087
  Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun 088/090/090
  90 Day Mean        27 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jun  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  006/005-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	10%	15%
Minor storm	01%	01%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	20%	20%	15%
Minor storm	20%	20%	25%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	25%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.76nT), the direction is North (10.52nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-60nT)

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