Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Nov,
09 Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 06/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 07/0740Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
07/1031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2058 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 088 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 085/082/082 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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