Viewing archive of Monday, 13 December 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 12/2114Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 336 km/s at 13/0704Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/0818Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/0122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 354 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Dec, 16 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Dec 081
  Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec 082/082/084
  90 Day Mean        13 Dec 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Dec  007/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  007/008-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%25%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%40%30%

All times in UTC

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