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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
20/0745Z from Region 2971 (N16E03). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (21 Mar) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 20/0148Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/1720Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 095 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 011/012-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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