Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 March 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/0413Z from Region 2965 (N26W68). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (20 Mar, 21 Mar) and expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 333 km/s at 19/2043Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/1528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/2046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 326 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 094 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 095/095/092 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 013/015-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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