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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
20/0407Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Feb,
22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 20/1651Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 20/0058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 20/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 093 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 096/102/102 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 012/012-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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