Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/1942Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Feb,
21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 19/2026Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 19/1526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
19/1426Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 201 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 096 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 098/102/102 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 011/018-014/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 60% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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