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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (24 Jan) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 23/0218Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 23/1125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0325Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6126 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 094 Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 090/090/088 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 011/012-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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