Viewing archive of Monday, 27 December 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/0227Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 26/2213Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 27/1359Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 27/1050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3210 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 Dec, 30 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Dec 124
  Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec 125/122/120
  90 Day Mean        27 Dec 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Dec  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  010/010-011/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm05%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%45%30%

All times in UTC

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