Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 December 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 28/0401Z from Region 2918 (N21W26). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 28/1500Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 28/0125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/0330Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 284 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Dec 121
  Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 122/122/120
  90 Day Mean        28 Dec 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  013/014-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm45%30%25%

All times in UTC

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