Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Dec,
03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 01/0624Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 30/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 30/2124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 527 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Dec, 04
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (03 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 086 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 086/084/080 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 010/010-011/016-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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