Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 01/2108Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 01/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/1623Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2920 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (03 Dec, 05 Dec)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 087 Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 086/084/084 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 013/014-010/010-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 35% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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