Viewing archive of Friday, 3 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 02/2100Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/1440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/1647Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4873 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 085 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 084/082/082 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 012/015-009/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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