Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 30/1237Z. Total IMF reached 21
nT at 30/0035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
30/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 324 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Dec, 01 Jan)
and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 102 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 102/100/100 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 007/008-005/006-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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