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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
25/2349Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 26/1906Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/0845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/0848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Jan), quiet levels on
day two (28 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 102 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 008/008-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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