Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 December 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 29/0428Z from Region 2916 (S17W22). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 28/2100Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 935 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
Class M15%15%15%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Dec 111
  Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan 110/108/105
  90 Day Mean        29 Dec 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Dec  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  008/010-007/008-005/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm30%25%25%

All times in UTC

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