Viewing archive of Friday, 5 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1530Z from Region 2891 (N16W51). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov,
07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 627 km/s at 05/1142Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 04/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
05/1313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1817 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 093 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 042/065 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 010/012-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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