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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/1530Z from Region 2891 (N16W51). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 627 km/s at 05/1142Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 04/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 05/1313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1817 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Nov 093
  Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        05 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  042/065
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  010/012-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%25%10%

All times in UTC

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