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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 325 km/s at 18/0119Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/0530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 287 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Mar 098
  Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 098/098/095
  90 Day Mean        18 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Mar  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  008/008-013/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%30%
Minor storm05%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm25%50%40%

All times in UTC

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