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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 03/1325Z from Region 3004 (S15W02). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 02/2242Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/2249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/1933Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2317 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
Class M55%55%55%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 May 114
  Predicted   04 May-06 May 115/120/125
  90 Day Mean        03 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 May  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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