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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1023Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (09 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 06/0040Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3827 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 117 Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 116/115/112 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 019/025-009/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 40% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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