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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/0131Z from Region 2985 (S20E16). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Apr) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 07/0510Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/0319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3207 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (08 Apr, 09 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Apr 111
  Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 108/108/105
  90 Day Mean        07 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Apr  014/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  009/012-010/015-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%25%
Minor storm15%20%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm40%55%30%

All times in UTC

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