Viewing archive of Friday, 11 March 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 10/2343Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 11/1426Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 10/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/0542Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 11/0720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (13 Mar) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Mar 127
  Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        11 Mar 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Mar  014/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  006/008-008/010-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%35%
Minor storm01%05%40%
Major-severe storm01%01%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%30%80%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna

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