Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 March 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 400 km/s at 10/1935Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 10/2032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 10/1901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8967 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Mar 127
  Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  011/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%15%15%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:35 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Sodankylä
Reykjavik
Kiruna

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Luleå, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (525.5 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (21.73nT), the direction is moderately South (-10.37nT).

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