Viewing archive of Friday, 11 February 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 11/1742Z from Region 2940 (N17W82). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 11/2047Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 11/1736Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 11/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6612 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (13 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (14 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 113
  Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 110/108/108
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  012/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  013/015-007/010-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%35%
Minor storm25%10%30%
Major-severe storm05%01%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%05%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm60%40%65%

All times in UTC

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