Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 February 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10/0438Z from Region 2941 (N24W15). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 10/1429Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 10/1516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 10/1503Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7543 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
Class M15%10%10%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Feb 118
  Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 118/116/112
  90 Day Mean        10 Feb 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Feb  016/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  016/020-010/012-017/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%20%40%
Minor storm20%05%25%
Major-severe storm05%01%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%05%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm60%25%70%

All times in UTC

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