Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/0438Z from Region 2941 (N24W15). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb,
12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 10/1429Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 10/1516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 10/1503Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 7543 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (12 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels
on day three (13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 118 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 118/116/112 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 016/020-010/012-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 25% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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