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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/2227Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 09/1338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5129 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Mar, 11 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (12 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Mar 115
  Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 115/114/112
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  009/012-011/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%10%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm40%40%15%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta

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