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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
08/2145Z from Region 2939 (S17W44). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Feb,
11 Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 504 km/s at 09/1233Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
09/2038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 10188 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (12 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 126 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 120/118/110 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 007/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 018/025-016/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 60% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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