Viewing archive of Friday, 14 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0203Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jan,
16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 14/1517Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 14/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at
14/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jan), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (16 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 110 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 110/110/108 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 014/018-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Tuesday, 8 October 2024
Double X-flares, glancing blow possible
Latest forum messages
AR 13869 164"Sorry, you have been blocked" 4AR 13883 96New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 19Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1182
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |