Viewing archive of Friday, 14 January 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/0203Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 14/1517Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 14/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 14/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jan), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (16 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 110
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 110/110/108
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 095

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  014/018-015/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%10%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm65%70%50%

All times in UTC

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