Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 December 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 18/1801Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 17/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19 Dec, 20 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 121
  Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec 122/123/125
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  006/008-009/010-013/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%30%
Minor storm01%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm20%25%45%

All times in UTC

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