Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
18/1801Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec,
21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 379 km/s at 17/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19 Dec, 20 Dec)
and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 121 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 122/123/125 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 006/008-009/010-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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