Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 December 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/1916Z from Region 2907 (S21W14). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 19/2051Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 19/2034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at 19/2038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 477 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Dec 115
  Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec 115/115/114
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 089

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  010/012-012/016-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm05%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%45%30%

All times in UTC

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