Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/1916Z from Region 2907 (S21W14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 19/2051Z. Total IMF reached 23
nT at 19/2034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at
19/2038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 477 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21
Dec, 22 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 115 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 115/115/114 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 010/012-012/016-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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