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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/1136Z from Region 2908 (S21W11). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (21 Dec) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 20/1826Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 19/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 19/2317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 227 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Dec, 22 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
Class M25%20%20%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Dec 123
  Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec 124/122/120
  90 Day Mean        20 Dec 089

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Dec  013/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  012/016-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%15%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm45%30%20%

All times in UTC

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