Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 March 2022

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 11/2232Z from Region 2964 (S28W68). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 12/1407Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/2134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Mar), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (15 Mar).

III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar

Class M	25%	25%	25%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       12 Mar 125
  Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        12 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  015/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  012/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  008/010-020/030-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	25%	30%	35%
Minor storm	05%	35%	30%
Major-severe storm	01%	25%	10%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	05%	05%
Minor storm	25%	15%	20%
Major-severe storm	30%	80%	65%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 20:16 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (588.4 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (27.48 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (17.75nT), the direction is North (12.47nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-73nT)

The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:

C6.74

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