Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 March 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
13/0323Z from Region 2962 (N27W49). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar,
16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 13/1047Z. Total IMF
reached 25 nT at 13/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 13/1636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 583 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Mar), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 123 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 020/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 020/030-015/020-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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