Viewing archive of Monday, 14 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1731Z from Region 2941 (N23W68). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Feb,
16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 14/0903Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/0509Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/0013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5483 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 107 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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