Viewing archive of Monday, 14 February 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/1731Z from Region 2941 (N23W68). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 14/0903Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0509Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5483 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M20%20%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 107
  Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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