Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 January 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1/Sf flare observed at 18/1744Z from Region 2929 (N07W58). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 18/1310Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1919Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4360 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jan 115
  Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  014/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  008/008-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm25%25%25%

All times in UTC

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