Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 December 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/0706Z from Region 2908 (S20W39). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 22/1215Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/0230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (24 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Dec 140
  Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec 140/140/138
  90 Day Mean        22 Dec 090

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Dec  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  012/016-016/020-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm20%25%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm55%65%30%

All times in UTC

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