Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 477 km/s at 25/0034Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
25/0044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 999 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Nov) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 094 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 092/090/090 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 006/005-013/016-016/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 60% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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