Viewing archive of Friday, 29 October 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 29/0242Z from Region 2891 (N17E41). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 324 km/s at 29/2012Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2012Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28 pfu at 29/0250Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 28/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 242 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (30 Oct), unsettled to severe storm levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Nov). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (30 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
Class M75%75%75%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton99%30%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Oct 108
  Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 108/106/106
  90 Day Mean        29 Oct 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Oct  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  023/045-028/044-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm35%35%10%
Major-severe storm35%35%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm15%15%30%
Major-severe storm85%85%40%

All times in UTC

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