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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 28/1535Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 366 km/s at 27/2120Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1629Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 28/1621Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 28/1950Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 28/1815Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 228 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Oct), quiet to severe storm levels on day two (30 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (31 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (29 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (30 Oct) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (31 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
Class M60%60%60%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton99%40%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Oct 112
  Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 113/114/114
  90 Day Mean        28 Oct 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Oct  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  006/005-038/040-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%40%40%

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Whitehorse, YT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.45nT), the direction is slightly South (-2.76nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-58nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C8.1

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