Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (03 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 01/2143Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 01/2139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
02/0902Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 087 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 087/085/085 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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