Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Sep,
07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 04/2324Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 05/1625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2033 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 094 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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