Viewing archive of Monday, 6 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Sep,
08 Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 331 km/s at 06/0431Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 06/1335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/1247Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3283 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 100 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, SodankyläArkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Luleå, Umeå
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