Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 September 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 07/1957Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/1342Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/2050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1479 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Sep 101
  Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep 100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        07 Sep 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Sep  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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