Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 11/0849Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/0439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/0433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 209 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 074 Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 074/004/074 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 005/005-006/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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