Viewing archive of Monday, 9 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0004Z from Region 2853 (N23E48). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 380 km/s at 09/0842Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/1128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/0727Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 352 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 073 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 073/073/072 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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