Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/0930Z from Region 2907 (S22W65). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 585 km/s at 23/0316Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/0717Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
23/1739Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2410 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Dec,
25 Dec, 26 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 130 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 009/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 016/020-010/012-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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