Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jan,
21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 19/0627Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 19/0139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 19/0112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3588 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 105 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 102/098/094 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 017/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 011/014-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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