Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
20/0601Z from Region 2929 (N08W88). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (21 Jan) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 19/2117Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 20/0534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
20/0839Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 22 pfu at 20/1015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2656 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jan) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (21
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 099 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 095/093/091 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 015/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 008/008-009/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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