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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 21/1732Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/1256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/1417Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 20/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3999 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Jan, 23 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jan 097
  Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 095/093/089
  90 Day Mean        21 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jan  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  009/010-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm35%50%30%

All times in UTC

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